Wow winter warmth forecast offers hope on energy bills

By Jill Dando News

It’s the best news UK residents could hear.

For households trying to resist turning on the central heating, there may finally be some relief.

An early forecast for this winter has found that it should be milder than usual, which could save homes and businesses millions of pounds.
It would also reduce the cost of the government’s energy price freeze.

Despite the government promising to limit typical annual energy bills to £2,500 and paying households £400 in instalments, winter temperatures will be a key decider in what people pay.

According to Christopher O’Reilly at the University of Reading, a one-degree lower average temperature would equate to an extra overall cost of £1 billion, based on the October price cap for gas. Even a fall of 0.5C would cause energy bills to go up by £500 million. “The numbers are pretty big, and the stakes are pretty high,” he said.

Fortunately his outlook for winter, to be published by the university’s Department of Meteorology, suggests a relatively mild season ahead.

O’Reilly ran a six-month seasonal forecast using data and a climate model from the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, which is used by energy traders and businesses to make their own forecasts. The model suggested UK temperatures would be above average from November to February.

To corroborate the findings O’Reilly looked at several factors that can influence UK winters. One is the La Niña weather pattern, where water in the Pacific is cooler than normal and easterly winds are stronger. In addition, equatorial winds miles up in the stratosphere are stuck in a stronger westerly phase. Finally, there is the 1.1C of climate change that the world has experienced since the industrial revolution.

Records of past UK winter temperatures show La Niña and the equatorial wind conditions both tend to favour mild winters. November and December, in particular, are associated with temperatures above average. The effect is less pronounced for January and February. “So milder conditions might be on the cards for the UK this winter, which would be good news,” said O’Reilly.

According to the forecast this winter, the UK could expect an average temperature of between 5.2C to 5.7C. In February 2021, Braemar in Scotland dropped to -23C, the UK’s lowest temperature since 1995 and the coldest in February since 1955.

The average minimum temperature in December is about 1.4C, while the average maximum temperature is 7C, according to the Met Office.

However, such long-term forecasts are inherently uncertain. The Met Office issues outlooks only up to three months ahead, which are made available to authorities for planning contingency measures.

O’Reilly cautioned that there may still be cold snaps triggered by the stratosphere suddenly warming. That could see brief events akin to the “beast from the east” in 2018.

Juliet Phillips, a senior policy adviser at the think tank E3G, said energy efficiency remained the only serious way to protect households from energy price shocks. “We need to invest in a nationwide retrofit drive as a long-term solution for warmer, healthier and resilient homes that cost less to run,” she said.

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